Republicans sharply criticized former President Joe Biden over rising prices at the gas pump, but a spike in energy prices amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran threatens to scramble the party’s affordability messaging.

The Iran conflict has led to a surge in gas prices for Americans, leading to an average 50 cents a gallon increase since Operation Epic Fury began on Feb. 28.

The average price of gas reached $3.54 per gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA. Diesel prices have also risen to $4.72 per gallon. The increases have been mostly fueled by volatility in oil prices, which rose above $100 per barrel on Monday as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shuttered.

The president characterized the gas price hike amid the Iran conflict as ‘a very small price to pay’ in a Truth Social post Sunday.

That statement represented a sharp break with Trump’s typical messaging touting low gas prices prior to Operation Epic Fury.

‘Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states under my predecessor — it was quite honestly a disaster — is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states. And in some places, $1.99 a gallon,’ President Donald Trump said during his Feb. 27 State of the Union address. ‘And when I visited the great state of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.’

The surge in gas and diesel prices threatens to undermine the economic message of President Trump and congressional Republicans, who have touted low gas prices as a major win in the lead-up to November’s midterm elections. Cost of living issues are expected to be a key concern among voters as both parties claim to be laser-focused on making everyday life more affordable.

During the 2024 presidential contest, Trump frequently campaigned on ending Biden’s ‘war on American energy’ and pledged to reverse a surge in gas prices that occurred under his predecessor’s tenure.

Gas prices averaged $3.45 per gallon across all fuel grades during Biden’s four-year term, surging to a record high of more than $5 per gallon in June 2022 after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

‘Starting on Day 1, we will drive down prices and make America affordable again,’ Trump said during a speech at the Republican National Committee convention in July 2024. ‘People can’t live like this.’

Democrats have seized on rising prices at the pump amid the conflict in Iran.

‘I wish the administration thought about this before they started this unnecessary war,’ Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, who caucuses with Democrats, said Monday when asked about the gas price hike.

‘Donald Trump’s war has sent gas prices skyrocketing through the roof,’ Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., wrote on social media Monday. ‘What contempt. What cluelessness.’

Schumer has called on the president to release oil from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to combat supply bottlenecks in the Middle East. The top Democrat notably opposed a Trump-led effort to replenish the stockpile in his first term when oil prices were much lower.

Republicans have voiced confidence that the rise in gas prices would be temporary. GOP lawmakers have frequently cited their efforts to roll back Biden-era energy regulations and boost domestic production as evidence that their policies are working to lower energy prices.

‘It’s going to be probably volatile for a period of time. I think what’s going to be key is ensuring we can get safe access to the Strait of Hormuz,’ Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., said Monday, adding that he was confident the disruption would be short-lived.

Daines, who abruptly suspended his re-election campaign last week, highlighted that average gas prices were under $3 per gallon prior to Trump’s State of the Union speech. 

‘That’s an important win for the American people,’ the retiring Montana lawmaker said. ‘Something you’re reminded of usually weekly when you’re gassing up your vehicle.’

Some Republicans and Trump administration officials are also arguing that a defeated Iran will ultimately spur lower gas prices, even if there is pain in the short run.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt characterized the recent increase in oil and gas prices as ‘temporary’ during a briefing Tuesday.

‘Once the national security objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved, Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly, potentially even lower than they were prior to the start of the operation,’ Leavitt said.

‘At the end of the day, we’re going to destroy this regime, and their ability to disrupt oil is going to be less, and we’re going to have more production, not less,’ Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told reporters Monday. ‘Once you take the largest state sponsor of terrorism off the planet, who depends on oil for their revenue, that’s a more stable world.’

Nearly seven in 10 Americans — including 44% of Republicans — expect gas prices to keep increasing in the coming months, according to a Reuters-Ipsos poll released Monday.

Trump has threatened Iran with unprecedented force if the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is further restricted.

‘Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!’ Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social.